Below is a blog post by Mark Warschauer on The Future of Netbooks (Papyrus News - Feb 23rd). I thought it makes a interesting read as well as adds to the swelling tide:
The Future of Netbooks
"In my research on laptops in schools, I noted the great popularity of laptop programs, but also the challenges that were preventing these programs from expanding. First, laptops were too expensive — they needed to fall below $250 to have a shot at serious penetration of the K-12 market. Secondly, they were too heavy. Nobody wants a 10 year old to be carting around an 8 pound machine all day. Third, they needed longer battery life. Laptop programs are hampered if kids can’t get through a school day without recharging. And fourth, current laptops have far more power than children need.
The development of low-cost, small netbooks computers has thus been a great sign for educational computing. And now it appears that future developments may be underway in this market that will go a long way to addressing most of these challenges. Apparently, nettops may soon be manufactured with the kind of ARM-based processors typically used in cellphones rather than the more expensive processing chips that have previously been used in desktop or laptop computers. These ARM-based chips won’t run the full version of Windows, but they are fine for running Linux, which is all a netbook really needs. They are also very cheap, and, importantly, consume only 10% of the power of a regular computer-processor, thus allowing much longer battery life. ARM-based netbooks will undoubtedly fall below $200, and probably drop well below that in the next few years. These are the kinds of computers I would be looking toward if I were on a school board. Students could then use Google Docs, Open Office for Linux, Firefox, Gmail, online photo editors, etc., further saving the district money. You would be getting a much lighter, much cheaper machine with long battery life and 80% of the functionality of a full-fledged laptop at 30% of the cost."
Apologies if this is old news to you, I am only just now catching up with my feed reader.
Unfortunately it would seem that the future of the netbook might well be Windows if this article is anything to go by:
http://blogs.computerworld.com/study_windows_clobbers_linux_on_netbooks_with_over_90_share
In the US, 90% of netbook sales in Nov, Dec and Jan were Windows installs, and that Linux is nothing but a paper tiger.
@Gareth,
I wouldn't really take much notice of one article.
Instead consider how the whole FOSS share of a once wholly owned monopoly is increasing at a very rapid pace.
Firefox now owns more than 20% of the browser market (this is really big because IE is
tied intobundled the default OS of almost every PC sold), OpenOffice.org growth is also fast - especially in the developing world.And Linux? Well, considering that just a few scant years ago any PC being sold that didn't have Windows on it was called a MAC, we are now in a very different world to that of three years ago...
Also, do bear in mind that the next big wave in the netbook market will be away from intel x86 architectures and onto ARM type devices with ultra-low power and a device footprint that Windows couldn't even get near. Linux is very nice on ARM (just look to see how much of the embedded market runs Linux already) and also Canonical/Ubuntu recently announced a deal with ARM (http://blog.canonical.com/?p=74) to ensure that everyting will work nicely.
I really do think that the conclusion the author of that peice came to was fundamentally wrong and showed some pretty poor analysis. He quotes numbers only from the US. The US is not the World market by a long way and the US is very Microsoft dominated thanks to their weak anti-competitive policies of the recent past. The take-up of FOSS outside the US is an order of magnitude more.
Here's a quote from the first article I came across after searching Google (http://www.vnunet.com/vnunet/news/2233381/netbooks-sales-driving-linux)
"While Linux-based netbooks have not gained much consumer acceptance in the US, their success varies greatly by geographical market. In developing countries, Linux-based Eee PCs have fared better," said Forrester analyst J P Gownder."
I'm sure there is much more if one is prepared to look for it.
I write this note on my Toshiba laptop which calmly runs Kubuntu 8.04 but started its life with Windows XP Home. When I buy a netbook, even if it is delivered with a version of anything else, I'll get it to work with a Gnu/Linux distribution suited to it.
In many ways, proprietary lock in is user lock out. Education is the opening of doors for students. The more I can show openness in the tools I use with my students, the clearer the goal is for them. Fortunately, the openness of Gnu/Linux makes it somebody's fun or challenge to tweak it for every hardware platform that comes along. The tweaking often jumps right over proprietary offerings by getting the most productivity possible.
The number of mobile phones outnumber PCs by 3 or 4 to 1. The two most advanced phones, set to dominate the market are the i-phone and G-phone. Rather like in the '80s, the i-phone is Apple proprietary and G-phone open architecture like the IBM PC. Difference is that the G-phone software is also open architecture. These phones could run most of the productivity tools anyone needs. Build in a projector (3M already has the technology) and keybooard and who needs a laptop? The G-phone OS has already been hacked and put on an ASUS EEPC. So a possible scenario is that phones will continue to push up into the pda and laptop market displacing PCs to specialist niche markets - such a possibility is supported by the principle of disruptive innovation. As more functionality moves to the web the need for a specific OS is reduced - most people don't know what OS is in their 'phone and don't care. If the cost of the OS puts the cost up it will be unsustainable specially as hardware costs fall. The only reason Windows commands a premium is that many apps only run on Windows but that is getting less and less and wil continue to do so. Already Linux provides a choice with enough good software to meet most people's needs, add an increasing range of web based stuff and I can't see any long term future for WIndows but of course social systems might take decades to change. One thing is for sure, I don't need to use it and as a company it gives us competitive advantage so half of me hopes that change won't happen too quickly ;-)